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Russia will present three scenarios in Davos that economists have prepared for the country's development, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said Tuesday at a briefing on the participation of the Russian delegation, led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, in the annual World Economic Forum to be held from January 23 to 27.
He said the scenarios, which have been prepared over a period of several months, will be presented on the first day of the forum. They are not an attempt at forecasting, they identify three uncertainties, the resolution of which will determine Russia's future path.
These uncertainties include the situation on global commodity markets, the pace of institutional reform in the country and the degree of regional integration or differentiation, Dvorkovich said.
Depending on these factors, three scenarios are possible: a scenario with low commodity prices; high prices but low level of institutional reform; and a scenario of increased regional differentiation. All of these scenarios are relatively negative, Dvorkovich said.
The scenarios were prepared by independent experts, while Medvedev will express the government's views, Dvorkovich said.
Medvedev will also speak about the priorities of Russia's chairmanship of the G20 on the first day of the forum.