Russia, EU to draft strategic forecasts for gas sector to 2030
Russia's Energy Ministry and the European Commission plan this year to draft a long-term energy scenario to 2030 that includes forecasts for the development of the gas sector, Energy Minister Alexander Novak and EU Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger said in a report on the Russia-EU Energy Dialogue.
The world of energy politics has long used forecasts as an ideological weapon. Analysts on the side of both sellers and buyers underpin parties\' negotiating positions with their forecasts and influence the decisions of regulators. Analysis of existing forecast models and an audit of their mechanism is one of the key strategic objectives of the industry expert community.
In 2030, Russia already presented its model of comparative analysis of various development scenarios for the gas sector to the EC. This model, which included 30 development scenarios, was based on various conditions related to forecasts for gas demand in Europe. The application of this model showed that demand for Russian gas in Europe in the period to 2030 will not decrease in any of these scenarios, with the exception of the scenario assuming the imposition of direct restrictions on Russian gas imports into the European Union.
After discussing the model, the parties agreed to conduct calculations with various types of pricing for gas, take into account restrictions on CO2 emissions, and consider in more detail the possibility of using gas in the transport sector and find a scenario that benefits both Russia and the EU.
The next seminar on this scenario is expected to be held in Brussels in February 2014.
It was reported earlier that the South Stream gas pipeline project remains one of the problematic issues gas relations between Russia and the EU. At the end of 2013, the EC demanded a review of the legal foundation for South Stream - the package of bilateral agreements between Moscow and the pipeline\'s transit countries.