Photo: PhotoXpress
Since the Yandex IPO triumph last month, there has
been a heated discussion in the blogosphere and media: about the stock options
granted to its employees; the number of staff who became instant millionaires
and shareholders who became instant billionaires; whether its stock will fall
or rise. I am less interested in the greed games or in how many start-ups
Yandex’s newly rich will establish than in what Yandex is going to do with all
that cash.
Investment memoranda always overflow with promises of unprecedented business
development. So, in what areas can this web search engine boldly expand its
business? In principle, maintaining a 66pc share of the domestic search market
and unchallenged leadership on the Russian-speaking web is a worthy goal. There
is a lot to be done here, of course, with e-commerce, mobile platforms,
alliances and competition with social networks, digital TV, or geolocation
services, to name just a few. But global expansion trumps them all. Today, real
success must be global.
So which direction can Yandex take outside the Runet, and what does it need to
succeed? Google dominates the global web search market. Search is the core of
the Yandex business model, too, so any global expansion would mean taking on
Google. This seems unimaginable: the global leader is much bigger in every
possible respect. How do you compete with a rival that is, say, 50-fold bigger
and better known than yourself? And one that owns what is generally considered
to be a far superior global technology to boot?
There are several obvious things to consider. First of all, the club of
national search engines is very small. In fact, it is much smaller than the
space exploration club – implying that web search technology is more intricate
than space technology. Fewer than 10 countries have a national web search
engine, and in only five of them is the country’s own search engine more
popular than Google. Yandex is already a member of this small club, which makes
it stand out.
Second, Google achieved its leadership in most countries virtually for free –
simply because there was no national search engine there to start with.
Wherever Google encountered some sort of resistance (such as China, the Czech
Republic, South Korea, or Russia), it had to take a back seat. There are, of
course, middle-of-the-road cases such as the cash-strapped Ukraine, which used
to have its own web search engines (called Meta and Bigmir) and where Yandex
and Rambler also made forays, yet Google still prevailed there.
In most countries, however, Google came to fill a void. To some extent this
void is still there because Google has made no special efforts to become
localized in those countries and has no incentive to do so. That is the beauty
of its singular position – it does not even have to spend anything in order to
maintain its leadership (except, perhaps, for keeping the languid Bing at bay).
Analysis of Yandex’s success on the Russian web demonstrates that profound
localization has been one of its key strengths, including local language
support and a rich local content (including maps, schedules, traffic, movies
and news), ie keeping a strong focus on whatever is important for the local
user. It may, therefore, be concluded that this model might work on other local
markets where Google has been formally localized at the source code page level,
but continues to offer what is essentially no more than a simple query box.
For example, a close look at Asia’s web search engine market reveals that
Google is used there for want of anything better. The average number of pages
viewed by a Google user after submitting a query is often three or four,
compared with one on the Runet or in the United States, which shows the low
quality of the search results. There are reasons to believe the Arab world,
Africa, Latin America and even Europe are not quite satisfied with the global
search engine.
Granted, deep localisation requires resources, such as staff, a local office,
and cash. But Yandex does not need to start up everywhere at once. Even Google
cannot afford to fight Yandex on each individual local market.
So far as Google’s technological supremacy on the English-language web is
concerned, Yandex trails Google by 15pc on the English-language web in terms of
the aggregated search quality indicator, but it is far ahead of all other
English-language web players. Bing, for example, is only one third as good as
Yandex.
As for Google’s hardware
supremacy, in the initial stages the number of
servers or data centres had little bearing on the efficiency of indexation.
Analysis shows that Yandex trails Google significantly in terms of recall (by
two-thirds), while Bing and Yahoo are much worse off. That is where the IPO
comes into play: double or triple your hardware to index no fewer
English-language (or any other) web pages than Google does, and worry about the
load later, when you achieve user numbers anywhere near Google’s. But that
would be an enviable problem indeed.
All in all, catching up with Google on key quality measures is quite doable,
even on the English-language web – not to mention the various national web
segments.
The real problem facing international expansion is marketing, not technology.
How do you displace Google, the very synonym for web search, from consumers’
minds? In principle, the experience of IT security firm Kaspersky Lab (retail
brand number one in Germany, the US, and dozens of other countries) shows that
it is possible to take the fight with huge global rivals onto their own
territory. The tools are available; all you need is effort, boldness, time, and
money.
In short, I believe that international expansion should be the focus of
Yandex’s development. Technological development, fighting for a share of the
Russian-speaking web, or dabbling in mobile applications are all fine, but you
just cannot sit in your national domain and wait to be swallowed up by your
rivals. Attack is the best form of defence.
A longer version of this article was originally published at Vedomosti.ru.
Igor Ashmanov is an IT expert and the founder of Ashmanov and Partners, whose most famous product, the Spamtest spam filter, became the foundation for the Kaspersky Anti-Spam solution. He is the author of the books “Life inside a Bubble” (on Rambler’s behind-the-scenes intrigues) and “How to Promote Your Website in Search Engines.”
All rights reserved by Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
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